Changing
Dynamics of Indian Foreign Policy
Dr. Amar Singh
Assistant
Professor,
DS College,
Aligarh,
Uttar Pradesh ,
202001
Abstract:
In the past couple of years, the world has witnessed some historic
events that are now shaping not only Indian foreign policy but also reshaping
world order. Among those prominent are the corona virus pandemic, takeover of
Afghanistan by the Taliban, India-China clash in Galwan Valley and the Russia–Ukraine
war. These events throw up a series of possible challenges not only for India
but for world as well. The foreign policy of any country cannot be based on
rigid postures and unchanging ideas. This article examines key factors that are
reshaping the global political and security order and India's
Foreign Policy.
Introduction:
Does Indian foreign policy have changed under Modi
regime? Before we go on to answer such seemingly obvious questions, let us
briefly pause to ascertain that the foreign policy of any country, including
India, is geared towards promoting and protecting the country’s national
interests in the wider world, among the comity of nations. The word ‘dynamic’,
describes the capacity for constant change or progress of a particular process
or system. The foreign policy of any country, unlike domestic policy, is usually
considered to be stable not subject to revolutionary change.[1] However major change in foreign policy
occurs when existing goals are significantly redefined and strategies are
reconsidered to suit the redefined goals. The mere redefinition of goals and
reconsideration of strategies does not constitute a major change until and
unless the foreign policy departs to a good extent in the desired direction
from its earlier position. That change need to be working at three levels: a
change at the individual or leadership level; changes in domestic variables and
the systemic or the international system-level variables.[2]
Change at the
individual or leadership level affects foreign policy. In a decision-making
process, a ‘leader’s personality and character can also influence a state’s
response’ because some leaders are keen to take risks while others do not.
Under qualified and experienced leadership, sometimes a state can achieve more
than what its capability allows. Domestic
variables are regarded as a primary determinant of foreign policy. Changes in domestic variables such as
regime type, ideology, ruling party, economic and military capabilities, media,
business, and public opinion, among others, also can decide the degree of
continuity and change in foreign policy. The structure of the international
system, that is, ‘conditions in the international system compel or pressure
states towards acting in certain ways, that is, to follow a certain foreign
policy’. The distribution of power in the international system bounds a state’s
foreign policy choices. Availability of choices or lack of it affects foreign
policy goals and strategies.[3] In eight years of modi government all three variables can be seen
playing their part. Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in its election manifesto had
envisaged its goal for foreign policy that, “The vision is to fundamentally
reboot and reorient foreign policy goals, content and process, in a manner that
locates India’s global strategic engagement in a new paradigm and on a wider
canvass.” Before analyzing changes in Indian foreign policy under the modi
government, we first examine strategic environment across the globe. [4]
Geo
political Challenges:
For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the
global order is experiencing a tectonic shift. Post -COVID world is changing at
multiple gears and levels. A rules-based international order is a remote
possibility. Instead, uncertainty and impermanence are likely to be the
dominant aspect in world affairs.[5]
The hasty withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan besides its unwinnable wars in
the Middle East and Russia's resurgence in the region along with China's
growing economic and military clout across Asia and Africa have made the end of
the US-centric world order discernible. Beijing feels “China's time has come”
to take its rightful place in the world. The so called peaceful rise of china is
not that peaceful as it is now beginning to pose a strategic challenge to the
global system. China has abandoned the ‘one country two systems’ policy,
stripping Hong Kong of its freedom. Beijing has already made clear that there is but one
China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.[6] Moreover,
the human rights violation of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, close Sino–Russian
relation and China’s aggressive posture towards Taiwan could well become one of
the flash points of conflict in near future. It is turning out to be the top
priority of USA to stop China from snatching away its status of domination on
the global stage.
The Taliban’s return was regarded as a strategic failure for
the US and its NATO allies and proved the old dictum that Afghanistan is a
‘graveyard of empires’.[7]
It was also a major setback for India. Indian security establishment
believes that a hard-line Islamic government backed by Pakistan may spread its
radical ideological influence across the subcontinent, boosting the morale of
the Islamist terror groups operating in India and generating stronger
recruitment and violence. [8]
The
Russian invasion of Ukraine as part of its inherent revisionism has
implications for the regional and global international order. Ukraine, backed
by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces
has imposed unprecedented
political and economic sanctions on Russia. As war drags on, European economies
starting to succumb to crisis and recession, inflation is nearing double digits
and winter with looming energy shortages is fast approaching. Global
food prices are skyrocketing. The same is true with energy. The world is being fragmented into blocs and they are being
consolidated. [9]
Tensions along the Indo–China
border remain real and in the first combat fatalities in 45 years, 20 Indian
soldiers were killed in the violent clash after they were attacked by Chinese
troops in the Galwan Valley on the night of June 15, 2020, during a
“de-escalation” process after a month-long stand-off between the troops at
several points in eastern Ladakh and Sikkim.[10] The Indian strategic
community is broadly in agreement that this border dispute marks an implacable
decline in India-China ties.[11] Both sides have continued to
hold talks but it can be easily said that the relationship between two
countries are at their lowest point since 1962.
Distinguishing Features
of Indian Foreign Policy under Prime Minister Modi:
The foreign policy of a country cannot be formulated
on firm fixations and rigid postures. As in individual relations, so also in
international relations, it is erroneous to function with one single psychic
framework. Our foreign policy should be not merely an effect-reacting function
but also a cause-creating process.[12]
With the
changed global geopolitical terrain Modi government has made some
changes and course corrections in foreign policy.
·
According to C. Raja Mohan, “Modi’s most
important inheritance and principal contributions would be departure from the
long standing non-aligned international position of India. Modi has embraced
realpolitik over moralpolitik through his emphasis on ‘India First’, and as a
result, India, which was hesitant in the past to draw closer to any major
power, has done so with the United States of America”.[13]
Rise of China and weakening of Russia will future push India closer to US.
·
According to
Happymon Jacob, “there is a new momentum in India’s foreign policy, a clinical
sharpness to its external policy design, articulation and implementation, in
clear departure from the ‘song and dance diplomacy’ that characterized the
foreign policy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi 1.0. The MEA appears to have
taken back the reins of the country’s foreign policy, preferring substance over
style.”[14]
·
From strategic restrain to not allowing it to be normalized, India’s
response to terrorism, especially of cross-border nature, has now been crystal
clear. The September 2016 ‘surgical
strikes’ by Indian special forces inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the
February 2019 ‘airstrikes’ by Indian Air Force against terrorist training camps
at Balakot inside Pakistan’s Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province were defining moments
in India’s Pakistan policy. India’s actions stemmed from its desire to change
the status-quo by punishing Pakistan for its continued use of terrorism.[15]
India has demonstrated that it will not tolerate such attacks, nor will
she be intimidated by threats of nuclear blackmail from Pakistan.
·
India’s
growth story is depended on stable, secure and peaceful neighborhood. Neighborhood
First Policy of the Modi government strives to develop friendly and mutually
beneficial relationship with all its neighbors. It’s not a new policy but under
present government it has got great emphasis. India can gain a leg up on China if
it offers assistance without the debt and political intimidation that now comes
with Chinese aid.
·
India has become the 5th
largest economy of the world and is now behind only the US, China, Japan and
Germany. It’s also one of the fastest growing major economies and poised to be
second largest economy till 2047. Strong economic growth will lead to military
might.
- India is the world’s largest
importer of defense hardware and
fifth largest military spender in the world, as more than 60 per cent of
India's defence equipment needs are met through imports.[16]
Taking this into account under “Make in India” program there
is greater push to encourage indigenous design, development and manufacturing
of defence equipment to become self-reliant….”Atmnirbhar Bharat”
- India’s
has enormous soft power potential. Modi’s bonding with the Indian diaspora
is unprecedented. Diaspora
can develop leverages in foreign countries resulting in raising their
stature to influential political elements in the host countries.
·
Indian
response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been distinctive, despite its
discomfort with Moscow’s war, New Delhi has adopted studied public neutrality
toward Russia and so for avoided criticizing Moscow for its actions.[17] Till
now India balanced Moscow and western block led by USA very well. India is
buying cheaper oil from Russia in huge quantity against the wishes of US.
However, as both sides are digging in for long haul, it is going to be hard for
India to ignore western block. Overtime, the war and its consequences are
likely to gradually decouple India from Russia, bringing New Delhi closer to
the US and its allies.[18]
Way forward:
·
For the
Indian security establishment, China poses a strategic challenge. China’s assertiveness
in the border areas and unilateral expansion of Chinese influence in the Indian
Ocean, the latter of which India fears as possible encirclement. All this has
hardened New Delhi’s perspective towards Beijing.[19] India will need to determine
how best to respond to China’s
sabre-rattling.
·
India’s immediate neighbors’- Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan
are in deep economic distress due to china’s debt-trap diplomacy. India needs
to become a source of economic and political stability in the sub-continent.
·
The
most important factor in India’s rise is its economic growth, and its ability
to translate this growth into power and influence.[20] However according to the
World Inequality Report, 2022, the top 1% of the population holds 33% of the
wealth, and the top 10% holds 64.6% of the wealth in India. As India becomes
the fifth largest economy, it needs to ensure prosperity for all (1.3 billion)
in terms of human safety, development, and equality in job opportunities.[21] This is where India has the
most work to do.
·
Indian Ocean
Region (IOR) is most contested ocean in the world. China wants to dominate IOR.
India with “Act East Policy” and QUAD wants rule-based order in IOR that
respect sovereignty, territorial integrity and equality of all nations in Indo
-Pacific region.
·
China's rise as an
aggressive superpower and Russia getting weak will push New Delhi towards US
and its allies. However India prefers a multipolar international order that
would allow it to maneuver between several and diverse poles, exploiting their
differences depending on the issue areas, to secure gains for itself while
avoiding permanent alignments with any. [22]
The current world order is in a flux. However Indian foreign policy has become more robust and focused on India’s core interests. Earlier, Indian foreign policy strove for a multipolar Asia in a bipolar or unipolar world. Now, it is pushing for a multipolar Asia in a multipolar world. India wants to promote a more inclusive, equitable, democratic and representative multipolar international system with the United Nations at its center. Indian diplomacy will have to be at work to promote a non-hegemonic Indo-Pacific order and engage in economic diplomacy to achieve the goal of Aatmanirnhar Bharat. The way the world order is changing with time, “India do not have any other option but to make itself strong”.
Endnote:
[1]
Shaw, Debnath (2019), “Changing Dynamics
of India's Foreign Policy,” Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), BHU, https://www.mea.gov.in/distinguished-lectures-detail.htm?843
[2]
Chandra, Vikash (2017), “Modi Government and Changing Patterns in Indian
Foreign Policy”, Jadavpur Journal of
International Relations, SAGE Publications, 21(2):98–117.
[3]
Ibid……
[4]
Shaw, Debnath (2019), “Changing Dynamics
of India's Foreign Policy,” Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), BHU,
https://www.mea.gov.in/distinguished-lectures-detail.htm?843
[5]
Narayanan, M.K., (2022), “
India’s watchwords in a not so bright 2022”, The Hindu, January 18,
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/indias-watchwords-in-a-not-so-bright-2022/article38284000.ece
[6] “Statement by the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs of the People’s Republic of China”(2022), August 2, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202208/t20220802_10732293.html
[7]
Wani , Ayjaz (2022), “Taliban’s Afghanistan: An Emerging Security Challenge for
India and Central Asia”, ORF, https://www.orfonline.org/research/talibans-afghanistan/
[8]
Sharma, Sarral and Patil, Sameer (2022), “India’s Strategy towards Post-August
2021 Afghanistan”, ORF, 28 Feb, https://www
.orfonline.org/research/indias-strategy-towards-post-august-2021-afghanistan/
[9]
“As
Ukraine war drags on, Europe's economy succumbs to crisis”(2022), The Economic Times,
August 23, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/as-ukraine-war-drags-on-europes-economy-succumbs-to-crisis/articleshow/93723106.cms?from=mdr
[10]
Peri, Dinakar(2021), “A year after Galwan clash, China beefing up positions
along LAC”, The Hindu, June 14, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a-year-after-galwan-clash-china-beefing-up-positions-along-lac/article34806645.ece
[11]
Gokhale, Vijay, (2021), “The Road from Galwan: The Future of India-China
Relations”, https://carnegieindia.org/2021/03/10/road-from-galwan-future-of-india-china-relations-pub-84019
[12]
Das, Parimal Kumar (1964), “ India's Foreign Policy in a Changing World”,
The
Economic Weekly,
https://www.epw.in/system/files/pdf/1964_16/45/indias_foreign_policy_in_a_changing_world.pdf
[13]
Mohan, C. Raja (2019), “Foreign Policy Under Modi: Between Aspiration and
Achievement Get access Arrow”, https://academic.oup.com/book/36682/chapter-abstract/321719579?redirectedFrom=fulltext
[14]
Jacob, Happymon ( 2021), “Under Modi 2.0, a course-corrected foreign policy”, The Hindu, December 25, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/under-modi-20-a-course-corrected-foreign-policy/article38032160.ece
[15]
Kaura, Vinay (2020), “India’s Pakistan policy: from 2016 ‘surgical strike’ to
2019 Balakot airstrike ”, The
Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs, Volume 109.
[16] Varghese, Peter N(2018), “An India Economic
Strategy To 2035”, A report to the Australian Government, https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/trade-and-investment/india-economic-strategy/ies/chapter-13.html
[17]
Ashley J.(2022), “What Is in Our Interest”: India and the Ukraine War”, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/25/what-is-in-our-interest-india-and-ukraine-war-pub-86961
[18] Jacob, Happymon (2022), “A
New Delhi View on the World Order”, October 6, https://institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/new-delhi-view-world-order
[19]
Chaudhury, Rahul Roy (2020), “Modi's approach to China and Pakistan”, India's
Foreign Policy, https://ecfr.eu/special/what_does_india_think/analysis/modis_approach_to_india_and_pakistan
[20]
Pillalamarri, Akhilesh (2018), “India’s Foreign Policy in a Changing World”,
The Diplomat,
https://thediplomat.com/2018/09/indias-foreign-policy-in-a-changing-world/
4/6.
[21] Mehta, Pradeep S. and Goel,(Tanya 2022), “A
rich India without Indians getting rich”, The Economic times, March28, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/policy-trends/a-rich-india-without-indians-getting-rich-why-worker-welfare-is-an-important-determinant-of-investment-decisions/articleshow/90487354.cms?from=mdr
[22] Tellis, Ashley J.(2022), “What Is in Our
Interest”: India and the Ukraine War”, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/25/what-is-in-our-interest-india-and-ukraine-war-pub-86961.
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